But when you look at longer term, this decoupling still exists. That completely blew off the chart, as you can see there and now we're kind of ricocheting back from that. But what we saw then was that in large part due to a lot of retiring people of the baby boomer generation and an increased payout to them, we started to see a decoupling where we're, you know, basically even though an unemployment was getting better, larger federal deficits, and that blew out obviously during the whole COVID stimulus pandemic lockdown era. And so historically over, you know throughout economic cycles, normally, you know, tax receipts and overall federal deficit are very correlated with the employment cycle. So, basically, starting 2016 or so, you started to see that even though unemployment was still getting better, the federal deficit actually began widening. And it's also just, you know, the past history of debts and how we got to here. And, you know, this is partially a demographics observation. Lyn: So this is the unemployment situation and federal deficits in the United States. Starting on page two, you've got the decoupling of what so many things are decoupling in this crazy world, which one are we talking about? Listeners, again, you'll find the download link in your research roundup email. And I think also, the underlying is pretty attractive.Įrik: Let's move on to your slide deck. And I think a lot of oil equities are attractive, I think a lot of pipeline equities are attractive. So you know, a lot of this clarity in the near term, but still very bullish long term. But I think that as you look out a couple years, I think the situation is still quite bullish. At this point, you know, I'm not trying to call a specific, you know, exact bottom on the market, there's still a lot of like a lack of clarity for the next few months in terms of decelerating economic activity. I think that at these, these lower price levels, it's been de-risked to some extent in the intermediate term. But essentially, the long term thesis I think, is still quite bullish for the whole space. We'll see how fast or how slow that goes. And now we have China partially reopening to some degree. I'm still long term bullish on energy, the supply demand situation is still long term very tight. Lyn: Sure Good questions and thanks for having me back. How should we look at it now though? Does that mean the bottom is in at 70.08 or could it be that we've got another wave down and are you still bullish long term? And when do you think this this market turns around? I think we'll go ahead and score that one as a win. And you told our listeners look, you are very, very bullish longer term, but you thought in the short term prices could get all the way down to $70. Last time we spoke, I think oil prices were around $90 or so. Lyn, it's great to get you back on the show. Click the red button above Lyn picture that says looking for the downloads. If you don't have a research roundup email, just go to our homepage. Registered users will find the download link in your research roundup email. Lyn has prepared a slide deck to accompany today's interview. Erik: Joining me now is Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |